Cyclone Arnab Tests India’s Quiet North Indian Ocean Season

Cyclone Arnab is set to bring the first cyclonic storm of the season to the North Indian Ocean after months of below-average activity. Its approach highlights how unevenly a severe El Niño has shaped storm patterns across major basins this year. The contrast matters: a quiet stretch in one basin doesn’t mean storm risk has eased everywhere, and conditions in a single region can diverge sharply from the broader pattern. Arnab’s arrival is therefore both a weather event and a test of how much the recent lull says about the season ahead.

Powerful storm, uncertain track

As of Oct. 27, Arnab was 859 kilometers (534 miles) southwest of Kolkata, with sustained winds of 213 kilometers per hour, according to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center. That strength is equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane. The center expects further intensification before landfall on India’s east coast, forecast for Wednesday, but models disagree on whether the cyclone will stall before or after crossing the coast. That uncertainty affects more than the timing of landfall: a storm that slows near the coast can prolong exposure to damaging winds and heavy rain, while a change in its path can shift the areas facing the greatest impacts.

Forecast disagreement is common when a storm’s movement and strength are changing, and the difference between scenarios can matter greatly for communities preparing along a long coastline. A projected landfall point is a guide, not a precise boundary around the danger. The storm’s effects can extend well beyond its center, and rainfall may remain a serious concern even where winds are less severe. For residents and local officials, the practical question is how conditions may vary across districts, not simply where the cyclone is expected to cross the coast.

The India Meteorological Department expects moderate to intense rainfall in parts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Heavy rain could damage standing crops and plantations, including banana, papaya and drumstick trees. Forecasts also point to possible deluges in Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Those warnings describe a wide potential rainfall footprint, though the source does not specify how much rain each area may receive or which communities are most exposed.

For growers, the timing is consequential because crops already standing in fields or plantations can be vulnerable to waterlogging, flooding and physical damage from severe weather. The consequences may differ by crop and location, so the forecast alone can’t establish the scale of likely losses. Still, damage to several types of produce could affect farm incomes and local supply. The same rainfall that supports agriculture under ordinary conditions can become destructive when it arrives intensely over a short period.

El Niño’s uneven footprint

The broader storm picture is strikingly uneven. The Atlantic is on course for one of its lowest hurricane counts since 1941, while the Northwest Pacific is tracking toward one of its most intense typhoon seasons on record. The North Indian Ocean, by contrast, has recorded markedly below-average activity in recent months. These differing outcomes complicate any simple account of El Niño’s influence: the climate pattern can shape storm-favorable conditions, but the effects vary by basin and don’t determine every storm season on their own.

Christian Werner, managing director of Global Weather Climate Analytics, attributed the regional lull to a suppressed Indian monsoon and the associated reduction in tropical cyclone activity, both linked to El Niño’s influence. That explanation connects the quiet spell to broader atmospheric conditions rather than treating it as evidence that the basin was free of risk. A reduced number of storms can leave a season looking calm until one powerful system changes the picture quickly.

It’s a useful distinction. Seasonal activity totals describe what has happened across a basin; they don’t tell a community how dangerous an individual cyclone may become. Arnab’s reported wind strength is a reminder that below-average activity and high-impact weather can coexist. This is more significant than it looks: a low storm count may shape expectations, but it can’t make the next forecast less important.

A seasonal window, and what comes next

The North Indian Ocean typically has two cyclone windows: April to June, before the monsoon, and October to December, after it. Arnab’s arrival at the start of the latter period puts attention on the storm’s track and rainfall footprint, after a season that had offered few signals of comparable activity. The calendar provides context for why a storm is appearing now, but it doesn’t resolve the immediate uncertainties about where it will slow, how it will cross the coast or how far its rainfall will reach.

Here's the thing: a late-season storm can reshape the story of a quiet season without changing the fact that activity was subdued for much of the year. If you're working in farming, shipping or local planning, the basin-wide comparison offers background, while the storm’s local track and rainfall forecasts are more directly relevant to decisions on the ground. And this is the part most people overlook: the storm’s path is only one piece of its impact. Rainfall across inland areas, including places outside the expected landfall zone, may also bring disruption.

That said, the available facts don’t establish the eventual damage, the final track or whether the forecast intensification will occur. The next updates will matter because the models disagree about when the cyclone may stall relative to landfall. For now, the clear signal is a powerful storm approaching a region that has seen unusually low activity. A quiet season, interrupted.

Photograph: People carry umbrellas along the coast ahead of cyclone Arnab’s expected landfall in Kakinada, on Oct. 27, 2026; photo credit: Noah Seelam/AFP/Getty Images

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